Rafael Nadal (ATP Tour.com)
It was a thrilling run of semifinals in Melbourne over the past two days. After two weeks of relentless tennis, the finals are set.
On the men's side, it's Rafael Nadal against Daniil Medvedev. Rafa is one of the best players of all-time and a win on Sunday would give him the most major wins in men's tennis history. His opponent, Medvedev, has been the second best player on tour since the start of 2021, and his immaculate play at the US Open led to him being the only man to beat Novak Djokovic in a Grand Slam event.
In the women's corner, home favourite Ash Barty is pitted against underdog Danielle Collins. Barty has been untouchable in Australia, winning every single set en route to one of the most dominant tourney performances in recent memory. Collins has proven capable in Australia, but this is her first ever major final.
If you read my semifinal preview, you would know that I am something of a genius myself. After almost nailing the entire men's semifinalists two weeks ago, I proved that my tennis knowledge was not just a mirage by going 4/4 with my picks, including the Collins over Iga Swiatek upset.
So, if I dare say it, I might have a good idea of how you can expect these final two matches to unfold.
Let's hope that it wasn't two flukes in a row and get on with the preview.
Men's Final
Matchup: Daniil Medvedev (2) v Rafael Nadal (6)
As I mentioned before, I've pulled off the incredible by nailing the men's final all the way back on the 16th of January. My usual modest attitude has evaporated, as I've watched my predictions come to fruition.
So, I have already wrote about this matchup. At the time, I said that a worn-out Medvedev would struggle to beat Nadal. I brought up that Medvedev is 1-3 against Nadal in previous matches.
I'm going to pivot from that train of thought and take Medvedev for this match, though. What's changed, you may ask? Nothing much, but I've seen a few hints that make me believe the Russian will pull off his second consecutive Grand Slam triumph.
Though Nadal started off very brightly against Matteo Berrettini, he really started to struggle in the third and fourth sets. His typically consistent play wore off and though he fought off the adversity, I must admit it was shaky play from the Spaniard.
Though Medvedev handled his opponent, Stefanos Tsitsipas, in the same amount of sets, I was much more impressed with him. Tsitsipas was impressively bold and fulfilled my prediction by attacking Medvedev's wings with a lot of power. Despite good play from the Greek, he was simply outclassed by Medvedev.
At the end of the day, the factor that convinced me to change my mind about this match was watching Medvedev's serve in action against Tsitsipas. In the first set, when Tsitsipas was playing really well and rarely making mistakes, Medvedev's service was just so overpowering. Even though Medvedev didn't break his opponent once and wasn't at his best with his shot-making, he still won the set in a tiebreak. He racked up 22 successive points when he had service, which gave him a chance to stay in the set.
So far, we've seen Nadal beat a lot of very talented athletes, but none of them could match his mind. Now, the Spaniard is matched up against Medvedev, whose physical strength is not what makes him special. Daniil uses his understanding of the game to his advantage, almost on the same level as Rafa does, and Medvedev will challenge Nadal until the very end.
As it is a final, anything can happen, and Nadal is certainly capable of lifting his second Australian Open title. What I noticed in Medvedev's semifinal was that his backhand is a weakness in his game. As a right-handed player, Tsitsipas couldn't take advantage of that as much as a lefty like Nadal could, so expect Rafa to be hammering shots to Medvedev's left-hand side.
However, for now, my pick is Daniil Medvedev.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev def. Rafael Nadal in 5 sets
Women's Final
Matchup: Ashleigh Barty (1) v Danielle Collins (27)
The men's final took a lot of pondering to predict the outcome. By contrast, the women's final feels like a layup.
Barty will almost certainly win this match, such as been her dominance over the past fortnight. Don't get me wrong, Collins has been very good. I watched her match against Iga Swiatek, and though Swiatek wasn't at her best, Collins' relentless play never allowed the Pole to get back into the game.
I don't think Barty will have much trouble with Collins. Though the American's hard and gritty style would be difficult for finesse players (like Swiatek) to deal with, Barty shouldn't fall victim to an upset here.
Collins is in the best form of her life, but her strength simply won't be nearly as game-changing against Barty as it has been on her path to the final. Collins' return of serve is very strong and she can hit the ball very hard, but Barty is rarely broken. She has only been broken once in this whole tournament and if Collins can't adapt to deal with Barty's slices, this could be a straight set victory.
Barty's weakness was always supposed to be nerves at this tourney, but she has shown no signs of letting her opponents get a chance. We are approaching Novak Djokovic in 2021 territory with Barty, in the sense her opponent could have a sublime match and still lose. Collins will need to play out of her skin, while simultaneously hoping that Barty will play poorly, to have any hope of winning.
Interestingly, I think Iga Swiatek would've made this a bit tougher on Barty than Collins will, even though Collins dismantled Swiatek. The Pole's unpredictability would have made it more likely for Barty make mistakes. Nevertheless, she didn't make it; Collins did.
The American could certainly prove me wrong, but I don't think Barty's dominance will be finished until she lifts the championship title above her head.
Prediction: Ashleigh Barty def. Danielle Collins in 2 sets
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