2022 ATP Australian Open Preview

 

Daniil Medvedev (Lawrence Ostlere, Getty Images)

    We have yet to see a single set of tennis at the Australian Open and already this year's tourney in Melbourne is making headlines around the world.

    The controversial Novak Djokovic case has finally been resolved after weeks of shuffling between the Australian government and the Serbian's lawyers. After failing in his appeal early Sunday morning, the world number 1 has been deported from Australia and could face a ban of up to three years from the country, not allowing him to visit Australia for the next three Opens.

    From a tennis perspective, it's frustrating to see men's tennis' best player not be able to participate, though Djokovic brought this wrath upon himself by acting as if he was above the law. In a country that has suffered through as many draconian lockdowns as Australia, this simply wasn't going to be permitted.

    Despite that, many players will be thrilled to not see the Joker on the bracket. Lucky loser Salvatore Caruso will take his place and with a 5-19 record over the past year, he is far less of a daunting challenge for those such as Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev among others.

    With that out of the way, I decided to branch out with the Sincere Sports blog even further to tennis (what's next: darts?) and highlight all 4 quarters of the men's draw. I will be pointing out what to look out for as well as my semifinalist predictions for this year's Australian Open. 

Quarter 1

Matteo Berrettini (Kirsty Wigglesworth, Associated Press)

        A lot of players will be opportunistic as they read the Djokovic news. Suddenly, players like big-serving Matteo Berrettini, British star Cameron Norrie, and hotly tipped youngster Carlos Alcaraz all have a chance to make a Grand Slam semi-final. On the top half of the quarter, Cristian Garin and Gael Monfils may meet in the third round in what should be a tightly contested match. On the bottom half, as long as Berrettini can avoid some of the fitness woes that have plagued him in the past, he should emerge (though Brandon Nakashima will not be a fun first-round matchup). Overall, this top half of the draw is far from straightforward following Djokovic's deportation.

QUARTERFINAL PREDICTION: Matteo Berrettini def. Gael Monfils

DARKHORSE: Oscar Otte

FIRST ROUND UPSET WATCH: Tomas Etcheverry v Pablo Carreno Busta

Quarter 2

Rafael Nadal (Tim-Clayton Corbis, Getty Images)

    From a bit of a disappointing first quarter to a star-studded second quarter, all eyes are on a potential Rafael Nadal v Alexander Zverev meeting in the quarterfinal. The two superstars, young and old, are on a collision course to meet each other. Young Canadian Denis Shapovalov is expected to meet Zverev in the third round and after a triumphant ATP Cup, "El Shapo" will be confident in his ability to get a result. However, with Zverev's form, I think the German will win the match. On the opposite half, Rafa is expected to have it easy until the fourth round where he will likely play either ruthlessly consistent Hubert Hurkacz or 2021 Aussie Open semifinalist Aslan Karatsev. Hurkacz's skill level isn't anywhere near Nadal's and Karatsev doesn't stack up well against Nadal. Expect the Spaniard to make it to the quarters at least.

QUARTERFINAL PREDICTION: Rafael Nadal def. Alexander Zverev 

DARKHORSE: Mackenzie MacDonald

FIRST ROUND UPSET WATCH: Jaume Munar v Aslan Karatsev

Quarter 3

Jannik Sinner (Peter McMahon, Associated Press)

    The third quarter is easily the most unpredictable of the whole tournament. There are several obstacles and this quarter may be the one to watch in terms of close matches. The powerful Stefanos Tsitsipas is the early favourite, but with poor form and injury issues heading into Melbourne, he is far from a sure thing. Young Norwegian Casper Ruud has been skyrocketing up the rankings with his consistency. Italian Jannik Sinner has all the momentum and is one of the best hard-court players on tour. Former world number 1 Andy Murray has been in great form lately, prevailing over Rafa Nadal in Abu Dhabi. If his fitness stays strong, he could win the whole quarter. I personally am a big fan of Jannik Sinner and expect him to break into the world's top 5 with an impressive showing here.

QUARTERFINAL PREDICTION: Jannik Sinner def. Stefanos Tsitsipas

DARKHORSE: Frances Tiafoe

FIRST ROUND UPSET WATCH: Andy Murray v Nikoloz Basilashvili

Quarter 4

Felix Auger-Aliassime (Brendon Thorne, Getty Images)

    The only man to beat Novak Djokovic in a Grand Slam last year, world number 2 Daniil Medvedev is the biggest beneficiary of Djokovic's forfeit. Though countryman Andrey Rublev or young Canadian prodigy Felix Auger-Aliassime will prove tough outs, Medvedev is heavily favoured to advance to the semis. However, the biggest annoyance to the Russian may be somebody outside the top 100. Erratic Australian Nick Kyrgios can drain the life out of a player and he is one of the toughest second round matchups in the whole draw. The rest of the quarter is fairly simple, aside from 13th ranked Diego Schwartzmann, who is capable of knocking off some of the big boys. With all the confidence in the world following his US Open win in 2021, I expect Medvedev to make it out of this quarter. 

QUARTERFINAL PREDICTION: Daniil Medvedev def. Andrey Rublev

DARKHORSE: Jan-Lennard Struff

FIRST ROUND UPSET WATCH: Emil Ruusuvuori v Felix Auger-Aliassime

Quick Look at Expected Semifinal

    I'm planning on writing another article once the quarterfinals are completed and I will preview the men's and women's semifinals. But for now, let's take a look at the men's semis that I've envisioned.

    The first would be 7th ranked Matteo Berrettini taking on 6th ranked Rafael Nadal. They haven't played each other since the 2019 US Open (Nadal won), but I think Rafa's experience as well as his left-handedness will help him beat Berrettini. 

    On the bottom half of the draw, my sleeper Jannik Sinner will be pitted against the highest ranked player at the tourney, Daniil Medvedev. As much as I want to go with the underdog story, I think Medvedev will advance to the finals and face off against Nadal. 

    Nadal is 3-1 against Medvedev and I think by this point, the Russian will be worn out. After beating Kyrgios, the Australian crowd will be on Nadal's side, which will be to Medvedev's disadvantage. With an Australian Open win in his pocket already, Rafa will play like a much younger man and win the Grand Slam title in a thriller. 

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